Waiting For The Black Swan | Zero Hedge

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Sometimes an Archduke is just an arch duke…

…Given the importance of oil, however, we should not be focused on merely its price, although that’s important, but also it’s availability.  Yes, shortages will lead to price spikes, and those will crush over-indebted countries, companies and individuals alike, but shortages will, by necessity, also lead to less economic activity.  Exactly how all that plays out is entirely unknowable.  Welcome to complexity theory which states that the behaviors of complex systems cannot be predicted.  They can be observed.  What actually happens are called emergent behaviors.

If a war with Iran breaks out, and the Strait of Hormuz gets closed down for any length of time (say, more than a month) there will be a shortage of oil that will lead to a price spike.  And a physical shortage.  How all that plays out in a world groaning under the weight of too much debt is unknowable, but it won’t be favorable.  Or pretty, or desired.

What happens to complex global, integrated, just-in-time delivery systems is also unknowable.  But it won’t be pretty.  We’ll just have to watch as supply chain disruptions spread though a complex universe of derivatives, 12% zombie companies, cov-lite loans, $4-trillion of emerging market dollar-denominated debt, already astonishing fiscal deficits, underfunded pensions and all the rest.

With the new attacks on two more oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and the US’s immediate blaming of Iran, there’s a much higher than acceptable risk of a very damaging war breaking out that will close the Strait of Hormuz.

Conclusion

The world is sitting on an enormous pile of debts and related IOUs.  One that could easily catch fire and burn with the slightest provocation.  While the central banks can print money, create the easiest financial conditions in decades, and constantly intervene in both word and deed in every financial market (which they do), the one thing they cannot do is print up more oil.

If the Strait of Hormuz gets shut down for any length of time that’s going to be a black swan event.  It will be unforeseen, have a large impact, and afterwards people will try to explain the resulting complexities in simplistic ways.

Source: Waiting For The Black Swan | Zero Hedge

Stephen Sondheim, Theater’s Greatest Lyricist – The New York Times

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Sondheim: You shouldn’t feel safe. You should feel, “I don’t know if I can write this.” That’s what I mean by dangerous, and I think that’s a good thing to do. Sacrifice something safe. Variety, variety, variety, Mr. Sondheim. Don’t let up for a second. Surprise us.

Source: Stephen Sondheim, Theater’s Greatest Lyricist – The New York Times

Category: People | Tags: , ,

“They Had Me At Gunpoint”: Hertz Customers Keep Getting Arrested For Driving “Stolen” Cars | Zero Hedge

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This happened to me with U-Haul. It’s a real thing. It’s a weird thing. Yep, we were driving up Sherman avenue in Hamilton and I noticed two cruisers behind me. It was a one-way street at this point that I was turning onto. I got kind of flustered as I wasn’t sure I could make the turn on a red light, so I waited. I think that’s the moment they thought they’d do me. I turned, they followed. I went past the first light and next thing I know a cruiser is beside me and one is behind me. They arrested me, cuffs and bucket seat in the cruiser for about 30 minutes when they finally let us go. I could go on…

Source: “They Had Me At Gunpoint”: Hertz Customers Keep Getting Arrested For Driving “Stolen” Cars | Zero Hedge

The Origins of the Deep State in North America. PART III.

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Source: The Origins of the Deep State in North America. PART III.

Men are afraid to mentor women after #MetToo

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A very real scenario. Things are getting very confusing out there, probably on purpose. So many opportunities to exploit and separate.

Men are scared of women now.

LeanIn.org and SurveyMonkey’s new #MentorHer poll reveals Friday that 60% of male managers report feeling “too nervous” about being accused of harassment to interact with women in “common workplace” activities such as mentoring, socializing and one-on-one meetings.

That’s a 32% spike from 2018, with an additional 36% of men saying they now actively avoid women in junior-level positions — effectively chopping down their shot at climbing the corporate ladder.

“The vast majority of managers and senior leaders are men,” says Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook COO and founder of LeanIn.org, in a statement. “If they are reluctant even to meet one-on-one with women, there’s no way women can get an equal shot at proving themselves.”

Widening the gender gap is actually an abuse of power, she says.

“We’re in a bad place — no one’s ever gotten promoted without a one-on-one meeting, I feel confident in saying that,” Sandberg tells “CBS This Morning” host Gayle King Friday. “Senior men right now are nine times more hesitant to travel with a woman and six times more likely to hesitate to have a work dinner.”

Women — and especially women of color — don’t get the same amount of mentoring as men, “which means we’re not getting an equal seat at the table,” Sandberg says. “It’s not enough to not harass us, you need to not ignore us, either.”

The study reports that the fear factor grew in concurrence with the rise of the massive #MeToo social media movement founded by activist Tarana Burke and fueled by a torrent of models and actresses accusing Harvey Weinstein and Bill Cosby of sexual harassment and assault.

In the last three years, scores of women — and some high-profile men, such as actors Terry Crews and Anthony Rapp — came forward to voice their experiences with harassment by people in positions of power.

more @ Source: Men are afraid to mentor women after #MetToo

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